Let's not forget gamer segmentation
How web3 devs are building for the wrong players
Gamesbeat was great last week. But there's still a biased focus when I talk with some developers or new entrants in web3 gaming that nags at me and clouds other planning: Somehow, people are forgetting gamer segmentation. 👨👨👧
Disclaimer: I am not a game economist. 🧮 I've helped refine the monetization of every major game out there, but I didn't build their economies from scratch. Also, we're all agreed that no one has nailed web3 gaming at scale. But infra-wise, things are getting sorted, so we need to stop worrying about that.
But the chatter of "onboarding the next billion people to blockchain gaming" that we sometimes hear not only presents a massive and far-out challenge, it's also just wrong.
There are 3B gamers. For any given F2P game, however, fewer than 10% of those will spend. And about 1% of them will drive over 80% of a game's revenue.
- Yes, we want any and all gamers to be able to onboard. 🚢
- Yes, we want to optimize games for the highest conversion, ARPPU, and LTV possible. 🤑
However, that "billion players" mark has the undertone that we're expecting all of them to:
be crypto ready 🧬
spend 💵
and participate in a secondary market, interoperability, and other benefits of on-chain games. ➡️
And that's just not how gaming works.
When talking to game devs, or the web3 hesitant, I try to peel back the layers of the onion:
Build for the 90%: The players who won't spend a dime but are going to have a great time playing. They're key to discovery, to fast multiplayer matchmaking, and to keeping the game alive as fodder for the monetizing crowd. 🌍
Monetize for the 8%: What cosmetics, upgrades, abilities or resources does your game need to entice buyers? Ultimately, I think we'll find it doesn't look a whole lot different than a F2P game. Many of these players may never sell an item on the secondary market, or will only to gain back some liquidity for the next purchase. 🎉
Consider web3 for the 2%. This is your new segment. The traders, speculators, collectors. Consider the additive (rather than core) experiences for them. Who will create a new meta around trading? What visual features could be baked into collectibility but no gameplay impact? 💎
We’re used to this in web2:
Most people just play CS:GO. A few spend. And then the smallest subset trade skins on the secondary market. But the game was built for the first tiers of players and payers. 🎮
Maxing out every achievement, every dark corner of GTA is Rockstar’s reward for the most maxie of players. But the game and its story are built for the masses. 🏆
Most people just play Candy Crush. 1% spend. And then 20% of that 1% go online to figure out how to really optimize the game. 🥇
Let's take a TCG, for example:90% of players will use base packs and grind for better cards. 🃏
8% will buy cards to accelerate their deck building. 🏃🏻♀️
2% will look for something more: Is there a secondary mode with a collecting meta, where the cards have print counts (e.g. 1 of 10,000) that are meaningless for core play, but fun for ranking a deck against someone else's, opening a new impetus for 2ndary markets and a net new experience. 🛒
This is where, to me, web3 gets great. We don't have to upend the planet, but the creative opportunities for devs to address and unlock entirely new segments of players and play are exciting.
We'll need experimentation, and there's no silver bullet right now, but I think when we reframe the task, blockchain onboarding goes from scary to just plain fun.